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After watching solar installations decline 16% in 2022, solar industry analysts expect to see a rebound in 2023. But the year ahead is so uncertain that Wood Mackenzie has forecast three potential scenarios.
The difference between the three scenarios is relatively small—with a roughly ten percent difference between the baseline scenarios and more optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, according to Michelle Davis, lead distributed solar analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Solar developers could see more projects move ahead by the end of the year if enforcement of the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act relaxes, Davis said. Whether the IRS publishes guidance on the implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act before the end of the year is another key issue to watch, she said.