Taking Stock 2022: US Greenhouse Gas Emissions Outlook in an Uncertain World

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In Taking Stock 2022, we focus on a wide range of uncertainties that can affect emissions outcomes. Global and US energy markets and the economy look very different now than they did a year ago, amid the war in Ukraine and high inflationary pressures from COVID-recovery turmoil. These geopolitical and macroeconomic trends affect the energy costs and technology developments underpinning our emissions projections, and this year has reminded us all of the inherent challenge in forecasting the future in these realms. In our analysis, we account for near-term increases in fossil fuel prices attributable to global energy market instability from the war in Ukraine. We also incorporate updated medium-term price forecasts for natural gas and oil, which are generally higher than in the recent past. And we update our technology cost and performance inputs to incorporate the latest forecasts from leading experts.

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